Top 10 projected QBs for 2026 Week 1 (half-PPR)
Our Week 1 half-PPR quarterback board: Jaxson Dart leads the model top 10, with Purdy, Allen, and Hurts close behind. Floors, ceilings, consensus edge, and how to use the list.
What this list is
Below is the top 10 projected QBs on our half-PPR board for 2026 Week 1, ordered by median projection (q50). Floor (q10) and ceiling (q90) show the range; edge is model median minus consensus when available.
Live full board: QB rankings · Week 1 projections.
Cover image is royalty-free stock football photography (Unsplash), not an official NFL player photo.
Top 10 projected QBs — Week 1
| Rank | Player | Team | Floor | Proj | Ceiling | Cons. | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxson Dart | NYG | 9.1 | 21.1 | 26.0 | 21.4 | −0.3 |
| 2 | Brock Purdy | SF | 10.2 | 20.3 | 25.2 | 21.3 | −1.0 |
| 3 | Josh Allen | BUF | 10.4 | 20.0 | 29.8 | 23.8 | −3.8 |
| 4 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 11.9 | 19.9 | 28.1 | 21.9 | −2.0 |
| 5 | Bo Nix | DEN | 6.8 | 18.6 | 23.4 | 20.0 | −1.3 |
| 6 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 9.4 | 18.5 | 25.7 | 21.3 | −2.8 |
| 7 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 10.2 | 18.4 | 26.8 | 20.4 | −2.0 |
| 8 | Caleb Williams | CHI | 9.6 | 17.9 | 25.3 | 20.4 | −2.5 |
| 9 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 8.7 | 17.9 | 21.6 | 21.4 | −3.5 |
| 10 | Jared Goff | DET | 9.9 | 17.1 | 23.6 | 20.7 | −3.6 |
Figures rounded; edge = q50 − consensus projection. Source: served model v0.7 board.
Fantasy take (opportunity first)
QB scoring is volume + design. Dual-threat floors (Hurts, Allen) and clean pocket efficiency (Purdy, Goff) both show up in medians; the widest ceilings (Allen, Hurts) are still where weekly upside lives.
How to read this board
| Pattern | Example | Use |
|---|---|---|
| High floor + high median | Hurts (11.9 / 19.9) | Cash / must-start profile |
| Huge ceiling, softer edge vs market | Allen (q90 29.8, edge −3.8) | GPP lever; market prices more pure upside than our median |
| Model and consensus nearly agree | Dart (−0.3) | Less “signal,” more “both systems see the role” |
| Negative edge on stars | Dak, Goff, Herbert | Often elite conservatism — ranking order > absolute edge |
If a name near the top surprises you (e.g. a young starter leading the sheet), treat it as a role / opportunity flag and verify depth chart and camp news before you lock a draft or Week 1 lineup. Our engine does not fully reprice mid-week injury designations — see About.
How we'd use this for Week 1
- Start from QB rankings for order, then sort the week board by ceiling for GPP.
- Stack only when the WR/TE opportunity story matches (check WR and TE lists).
- Use edge as a disagreement flag, not a sit/start bot — more in How to read consensus edge.
- Re-check inactives Sunday morning.
Next steps
Projections are informational half-PPR forecasts for entertainment and analysis. Cover: Unsplash stock (not a player likeness). Always verify injury and depth-chart news before lineups.