Volume × Efficiency: How FFOptimizer Projects Fantasy Points
We don't predict fantasy points in one black-box step. Volume is modeled first; efficiency is regressed. Here's why that matters for half-PPR lineups.
Most fantasy tools spit out a single number: projected points. Under the hood, that number is usually a noisy blend of recent production and market rankings.
FFOptimizer decomposes the problem.
fantasy_points ≈ volume × efficiency
Volume is the stable signal
Snap share, route participation, targets, carries, and red-zone touches move more slowly than yards-per-touch or TD rate. When a back suddenly loses goal-line work, the volume story shows up before the box score narrative does.
We surface intermediate projections so you can ask:
- Is the target forecast rising while efficiency is flat?
- Did carries drop after a committee shift?
- Is consensus pricing pure TD luck?
Browse the full Week projections table to sort by edge vs consensus.
Efficiency regresses hard
Catch rate, yards per carry, and TD rates bounce week to week. A simple lesson from rigorous evaluation: chasing last week's efficiency is how projections lose to the market.
We shrink efficiency toward position norms. That can look "conservative" on elite scorers at times, but it keeps rankings more honest when regression hits.
How to use this as a fantasy player
- Start with rankings for your position of need — e.g. RB rankings.
- Open the week board and check consensus edge.
- Prefer players whose volume chain supports the points, not just a hot efficiency week.
- Cross-check injury and role news in Articles before locking a lineup.
What we optimize for
We evaluate changes carefully before they reach the live boards. The goal is stable, usable projections managers can reason about — not a black-box point total.
Product overview: About. Live numbers: projections.